My bullishness on the Metaverse is well documented.
And I know it’s risky.
So what gives?
It’s Dead Bro
The Metaverse is not dead, far from it, normie.
Facebook’s Horizon Worlds has been a flop so far, and they have finally decommitted some resources to it.
Blockchain metaverses continue to build, grow, and proliferate.
I occasionally update my thoughts on the Metaverse as a whole, and the projects I’ve chosen to follow. Last week’s pod was just that.
As I often do with these, I received comments from people who want no part of this.
And I totally get it.
You have to be a more risk tolerant person to be interested here. And everyone falls on different places on the risk spectrum.
There are no blue chip plays in this space in terms of actual projects. Not yet at least.
The hype from 2021 did not pan out.
Most projects will fail before they even release a game.
Once those games are out, I do not see people racing to play them the same way the fanboys do.
Sentiment will drop once again.
Speaking of sentiment, there is an overall souring on the Web3 space, and still wild enthusiasm towards the Web2 space.
This will take many years to shift over to our side.
And once the titles are out, brand new challenges begin. This is a brand new space.
Economics, tokenomics, security, government backlash, the game here is just beginning.
And if we do have an economic downturn, less and less people are going to be able to afford the hardware for these games for one, and will be less likely to be able to participate in the most exciting aspect of Web3, and that’s land ownership.
Can’t sell for profit if there’s no buyers.
And there’s no guarantee once these games come out, that they’ll actually take.
The riskiest things I own are in this space.
But I’m okay with that, because…
The asymmetry is there in my opinion.
Contrarians tend to be more risk tolerant than most.
Going with the herd is easy, but has far less upside.
I really do think Web3 gaming in particular is going to be the first horse out of the gate in the next crypto recovery.
Axie showed us that even if you build a shitty game with holes in it and bad tokenomics — they will come.
Even backing up a bit, people may have less money going forward, but I think the shift to people spending more of their time at home is really happening.
GenZ in particular, that trope is real.
Plus, Web3, in the gaming sense at least, is going to be an opportunity to EARN money. Playing games, which most people are going to be doing most of the time anyway.
It’s too enticing to ever be considered “dead” at any point.
Human behavior is real.
The bust cycle here is already over. We may move down further with the overall beta of the crypto market falling, but that just presents the exact type of buying opportunities that I love.
Things that get cheaper through no fault of their own.
There is a chance that this entire second generation of our valiant attempts at Web3 could completely collapse and vastly underperform expectations.
Don’t put a big percentage of your bankroll into this space. I have not. About half of my investments here have been made with free money.
But if the world really does begin to shift this way. And we were the original adopters….
Tell me that’s not worth a shot.