The economy is acting like it’s 2021 again.
But but everything way different now than it was back then.
And you’re right, it doesn’t make sense at all.
On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell raised interest rates by an expected 25 basis points.
The financial media then gathered around him, grabbed their respective genitalia, and waited for him to speak.
And they got exactly what they wanted. Some unexpected dovish words and phrases. A departure from his normal tenor and sentiment.
Then of course, the market responded appropriately.
FinTwit did a victory lap, because most of them are no more than children and grifters pumping their own bags and media networks. They live in the moment, because they also want YOU to live in the moment with them.
Long-term outlook twitter doesn’t make nearly as much money off of your futility as they do. C’est la vie.
But with all of this media in your ears and eyeballs, and the charts doing what they’re doing, it’s natural to cast doubt on the bears and all of a sudden plunge yourself into fake bull market euphoria.
Do not step into this abyss. (NFA)
Let’s do what we always do on here. Eliminate the hype, and deal with real things.
We’ll start with George. I will save my commentary for the next video. Just watch the whole thing. I know, as good as he is at breaking things down for the common person, some of his videos do go over our heads at time.
But this is not one of those videos.
Want to know more? Got another hour and 15 minutes to kill?
Don’t lie, of course you do. It’s worth it.
If you are relatively unfamiliar, Blockworks Macro is a nice alternative to Real Vision. Although I do like both channels, I actually prefer Blockworks a bit better. Fits our style a bit more than Real Vision, which can get a bit droll and a bit Bloomberg-y at times IMO.
And here is Jim Bianco, which for my money, cuts through the noise and explains things in plain English better than anyone else out there.
So you know I was hype for this one, and it did not disappoint. It’s never boring. My commentary will be below. But don’t be lazy, watch the whole thing here too.
0:00 – It’s Team Bed-head. LFG!!
5:19 – Exactly. What happened? Where’s the pain? Where’s Wallace? If it all of a sudden went away, you should tell us why.
11:09 – I was not aware of this. It’s still this top-heavy? It makes everything even more suspect. Interesting point on the shitcoins, but I would actually expect that, as dumber money gets excited about moves like this.
18:00 – 25:00 – Straight fire on China restarts. A lot of information that I did not have in Episode 86 of the 10-Minute Contrarian Podcast, but a great addendum to it.
25:30 – Nat Gas equity holders take note here.
28:20 – The Fed and the Biden administration has been forced to make up new metrics to hide what’s really going on. Never forget that. Wall St knows about this, but they, and the media that supports them are willfully going along with it in the hopes they can still keep the market bullish. “It’s a big club, and you aint in it.”
29:55 – Yep. Inflation just comes right on back if you do that.
31:00 – NEVER underestimate demographics and the affect of mass retirements. Very interesting stat here.
43:49 – I’m quite solvent Jim, thanks for that!
47:25 – Good riddance to Brainerd. Basket case. Giant MMT proponent. Would have turned the US into Argentina. I don’t think it would be possible to replace her with somebody even crazier. I don’t think that person is out there.
54:28 – As always, look deeper when you hear stats like this. “China’s air traffic has gone up 300%”. What’s 300% of almost zero?
101:32 – Bingo. They’re not fixing anything. They’re just trying to wish prosperity back into existence.
102:52 – I will actually disagree here. I don’t think people have gotten that investment style out of their system yet. Probably not even close. It worked so well, why would people not fall for these recovery narratives and do it again? They’re certainly going to try. I think a “stock-picker’s” market is in our future, but in our distant future.
Conclusion
If you’re a bear, this small period in our financial history probably does seem absurd, and that’s because it is, unless you understand how manipulation works, then it’s a lot less surprising.
Just know you still have reality in your favor, price moves in waves, and it’s all manipulation at the end of the day until it isn’t anymore and reality finally takes over for good.
If you’re a bull, enjoy this time. For however long it lasts.
— VP