Tanks have been sent to the Ukraine.
It was probably inevitable.
I follow 6 different geopolitical analysts, but the one who has been at the forefront of this war in ways nobody else has is Peter Zeihan.
You may have heard me reference him a time or 30 before.
I’ve been following and reading his work for sometime now, and when he stays in his zone, he rarely misses.
Recently, he has come under fire because of his newfound popularity thanks to his appearance on the Joe Rogan podcast.
He spent about 2 minutes talking about Bitcoin, and why he doesn’t like it.
The maxis got their pads all twisted.
But his oddly contrarian takes, and the level of certainty behind his points (God forbid anyone have conviction behind what they believe), has rubbed many the wrong way.
“You mean China isn’t this big hulking monster who will take the World Leader torch from the US any day now?”
No, actually China’s time as any kind of power at all is almost up, and they can barely feed themselves, much less defend themselves if it ever came to it. Peter’s words, not mine, but his facts have yet to be well refuted here.
So when he began to outline his thoughts on how the Ukraine/Russia war would likely go down, he was not as confident as most people were when it came to the Ukraine’s ability to hold off such an offensive. But he was confident that this war was going to happen no matter what.
This video is a must-watch. Lots of alpha regarding metals and food as well.
Admittedly, Peter did not see Ukraine doing this well so far, but from the very start, he has mentioned many times that not only is this Russia’s last stand (translation: They’re not going to give up), but that their strategy for centuries now has not changed.
They send in the clowns first, then the elites come in second. Third, we don’t always know, but there will at least be a third. They’re already drafting men in their 40s into service.
This winter is when the second part begins.
Send in the tanks.
German Leopard tanks are making their way to Ukraine.
US Abrams tanks are just a bit behind the Leopards.
Quick overview of the Leopard 2 tanks here.
Now as a Ukrainian, you don’t just jump into a foreign-made tank and get to be all badass with it.
There will be training involved.
And word is the Abrams requires even more training.
But now that winter is here, and vehicles can move along the frozen ground.
Act II is upon us.
War For Profit
Where does this leave us as investors?
All I can do is what I’ve always done in the past.
Use my own logic and reason to figure out where the puck will go.
You now have a situation where these tanks are no longer on their native soil, defending those borders. Let’s not forget this.
Will they be replaced?
How many will be lost in the war?
Will ammunition need to be replaced as well, and how often?
Going forward, I would see the prices of things like oil, nat gas, copper, steel, and foodstuffs all getting stronger as a result of this possible escalation.
Aluminum I do not know. I’m weak on my aluminum knowledge, and this is why we don’t often talk about it.
But stay frosty out there contrarians. These events matter.