There’s a lot still left to happen in this bear market.
Your mettle will be tested.
Most of you will fail.
A whopping two weeks ago, I put out a podcast episode talking about the road ahead, and how it’s grim.
Markets have fallen, and the main drivers that I thought would have triggered such a crash have yet to even take place!
I still expect all of these crises to occur.
If they do, what does that mean for the markets?
What does it mean for humanity?
A Long, Long Winter
How long would it take to recover if all of these things DID take place?
Remember, the Fed helped get us out of the GFC of 2008, and the Virus crash of 2020. But here’s the problem…
The things they do are no longer working.
Actions have consequences, especially reckless and irresponsible ones.
No matter what the Fed does, it can no longer control the outcome.
It’s doing whatever it can to quell inflation, including raising rates, which crashes the economy.
They care more about inflation. Why? It’s instant gratification.
They don’t want the Dems to lose control of congress, so they need to make the dumb populous happy by making it look like everything will be fine as far as inflation goes, because they think that number is what people care about the most.
Common sense was never their strong point. The middle-ground votes they’re trying to win are the smart ones — the ones who don’t go too far over to one side.
If the economy goes, we all go. The effects will be felt far worse than a higher inflation number.
And then you have a possible death cycle, where we can’t get out of either one.
Oh, and let’s not forget the 6 crises, which have yet to occur.
This bear market, and the stagnation which follows, will likely last a very long time.
What are you doing to prepare?
Boiling frogs is easy because most people are dimwitted.
High gas prices are the norm now. So much the norm that a one dollar per gallon drop in price would be celebrated nation-wide, even though in most places, it has risen more than three.
The real problem is what this does to our infrastructure, which most people won’t see at first because it’s not right in front of them.
But I would go as far to say that the prices of literally every consumer good we saw in 2019 will never be seen again.
And to make matters worse, in the States, the dumbass administration has tapped into the Strategic Petroleum Reserves.
“Why did they do something like that VP? We don’t have a severe oil crisis in the US right now.”
Just like before, they did it to garner cheap votes so they can keep majority in congress, which they are still not going to get.
This is about as foolish, childish, and irresponsible as it gets.
You don’t fuck with the energy supply just to get cheap votes.
Energy = life.
As a result of all of this dumbassery, the US, a country that should be completely self-secure when it comes to oil and LNG, is now begging Venezuela and Saudi Arabia for their oil.
The Saudis have told us to fuck off, which was the appropriate response, and even if Venezuela acquiesces, their oil is the really shitty thick sour crude that takes a lot of infrastructure just to make it usable.
I mean, they could turn the pipeline back on, and allow drilling on govt land again, but that would upset the environmental elites, and we can’t have that.
I’ve said it before, this is all being done on purpose.
If you’re in a rich country and have money, you’ll be fine, but shit’s going to cost more, and some things won’t be available anymore.
But if neither of those two things apply to you, stock the fuck up now.
We are still eating last year’s harvest, and this is why you are not seeing what you almost certainly will see by this time next year, if not sooner.
Billions of people may die from this. Again, all according to plan if you ask me.
This is overlooked by most non-financial people.
But again, if bonds go, we all go.
It should NOT go ignored.
Check your history. If there was ever a leading indicator….
This is what caused the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, almost all by itself.
Yes, it triggers other things, but it has the power to get the party started, and booming, all on its own.
Can we all agree that housing, all over the Western world especially, is at completely ludicrous levels?
Do we think they will stay there, or go up?
Remember, there needs to be a swath of enthusiastic buyers out there to keep prices moving higher.
Or, is economics still undefeated, and things will eventually correct?
And when they do, how far do they have to fall?
Remember, nobody not named Blackrock is going to have the money to buy them up, even when they become cheap again.
All by design.
This was an accelerant to the GFC of 2008, spurned on by the housing crisis.
This is bad, because it affect banks, which affects everyone.
After 2008, everyone learned not to loan money out to people who are not likely able to pay it back.
When inflation is high, and economies crash, all at the same time, the number of people who can no longer pay back their credit goes way up.
This is such a second and third order effect of what I see occurring, I don’t even have a good video for it.
But you’ll see lots of them soon enough!
Escalation in the War
If the war in Ukraine was a board game, who would be winning right now?
If you listen to Western mainstream media (Still? Really??), you would think it’s Ukraine/NATO.
“We just blew up a Russian plane today, yaaaaaayyyyyy!!”
But the people who know better, know better. Russia will probably take this one, and then escalate further.
LOL, do you have any idea how hard it is to search “Russia winning war Ukraine” on YouTube right now, and find a video that supports this idea?
Build a stable of good Twitter follows, and you will forever know what’s really going on out there, that’s all I’m going to say to that end.
Forgot this one. So 7 crises.
When food and energy runs out, do citizens just sit there and take it, or is there unrest?
Civil unrest on the domestic front will be severe. It’s already happening, and these crises have yet to even take shape.
And on the sovereign nation front, they will be getting desperate too, especially for energy.
Everything is fine when everyone has access to it, and the ones who don’t are too small to fight.
But this will not be the case going forward.
When wars break out, people stop spending money, and economies don’t recover until it’s over, and has BEEN over for awhile.
This is DEflationary by the way, but not the good kind.
And Don’t Even Think About a Recovery
Because it may not happen for a long time.
How long does it take to recover from 6 (7) crises all in the span of a few years? When the adrenaline shot we all relied on (Fed) no longer works?
Those of you who don’t really want to play the long game may have no choice to.
Stay up on new technologies such as blockchain, because it should lead us out of the ashes, whenever that may be.
Stay up on commodities, because when they run out, it will be the only trade in town, and we may have a very long commodities cycle coming up, possibly a decade long.
Those of you who only get excited when things go up are going to lose interest in investing altogether.
Good. The investing world won’t miss you.
What You Can Do
I’ve mentioned it many times already. You can start with the podcast episode I posted near the top of this blog post.
Stack cash and gold, spread it out, and never think you’re safe and insulated from what’s coming.
Take actions, even if people are going to look at you funny. Those people will struggle worse, just remember that.
If your family isn’t taking action, you will be forced to do it on their behalf, unfortunately.
And be prepared to wait it out. For a long time.
If we’re all wrong, at least it didn’t cost you much in the end.
This is an asymmetric bet, of the reverse kind.
Don’t pass it up.