Is This It?

There’s a lot of doomer recession talk going on this week.

 

Is there reason to be concerned?

 

What We Know Here

 

I’ve already done a blog post, two actually, laying out what to look for in terms of attempting to time the next great recession.

 

Number One

Number Two

 

And spoiler alert — it’s not here yet.  It probably won’t be until next year.

 

But you wouldn’t know it if you’re a frequent user of the X app, fka Twitter.

 

Prognostications are everywhere.

 

The S&P is falling

 

 

Even the Nasdaq is falling!

 

 

But not as bad as China.  They’re really falling.  In every sector.

 

4 of the top 5 videos on Bloomberg yesterday were bearish China videos.

 

 

Bloomberg is actually a good source for China, because they dedicate hours a day to them where others don’t.

 

And some western countries have even claimed a recession in their country already.

 

Crypto is falling, metals are falling for some reason, and the USD is rising.  A lot.

 

This is the main USD ETF, ticker symbol UUP, on a one month chart once again.

 

 

So what does it all mean?

 

It Means What You Think It Means

 

You’ve been following me long enough to probably know what I’m going to say, but I’ll say it anyway, and with one caveat.

 

First of all, price moves in waves.  This could very well be nothing more than a retracement for a move higher, but most people are way too zoomed-in to notice it, as usual.

 

If for some reason we did peak, one of the things basic price action gets right is we almost never go truly V-Shaped, there is almost always a lower high to be had somewhere.

 

Even in 2020, which was the most V-Shaped thing I had ever seen, we sill made a higher low.

 

And if we have in fact peaked, and it’s down-only from here, the reason will be China.

 

China’s inevitable collapse was not one of the original 6 Crises, but was added soon after as one of the things that could take down the world’s economy on its own if it wanted to.

 

The sell levels it would trigger, the fear it would bring, and the domino effects which could happen thereafter are all very real things.

 

This would be big enough to disrupt the FRED charts I gave you in the blog links at the top of this post.

 

After all, they almost always come when nobody expects it.

 

There sure are a lot of people expecting it now.

 

Solution

 

Same as always.

 

Stack USD, Gold, Silver, and possibly BTC.

 

Spread your money out, have it in at least a half dozen places, including offshore, and on the blockchain.

 

Make sure you yourself can physically go offshore as well in an emergency.

 

Hold actual cash.

 

You will probably have awhile before you’ll need to have all of this prepared and ready to go.

 

Or I’m wrong, and the dominos we’ve been waiting on are officially falling right now.

 

So just get off your ass and get prepared now, you lazy shit.

 

Not financial advice.

 

 

— VP