Remember a month ago? All of those exciting narratives?
They’re all still here.
Did you think they went away just because price is down??
Why? How?
Because price is down and you’re feeling poopy?
The one “narrative” which may actually die, thankfully is where a lot of smart wealthy public people have forecasted Bitcoin to $90-200K by the end of this year.
You hopefully have been around long enough to call the UNDER every time this happens. I would love to be wrong, but….
Always deal with facts, and probable outcomes. If you can do that, you’ll be just fine.
Let’s take a look at what was happening a month ago, and is still happening with zero change whatsoever.
List
Bitcoin topped out around $73K, and sits in the $59K range now, after dropping to the $57K range this week.
That’s quite a drop. Must be something really big, no?
It’s not. To me, it’s manipulation as it often is. But that’s not what we’re talking about today.
The exciting fundamentals which existed at $73K still exist now just as much as they did back then. Nothing has changed.
These are just some of those fundamentals. I will not go into too much detail because you can do that if you want, and I have doctor and dentist appointments in the same day today, because why be happy on a Thursday?
1 – Institutional money isn’t even close to being here yet
We know this because institutions in the US at least are required to file a 13F form to disclose their holdings.
The good news is that a few of them have bought BTC via ETFs, which means the desire is there, but there is sooooo much potential money still to come through these vehicles. Nothing has changed.
And these people don’t fall for the sentiment traps like the public does, so low prices for them are good.
And I suppose reason 1A would be how sovereign nations have not lost interest in the slightest either. Expect to see more buying there too as we move along.
2 – VC money still pouring in.
Which is crazy considering interest rates all over the world. Money is expensive to borrow. But they see the upside, and your top projects have no problems getting funded right now. Even shitty ones are getting funded too.
3 – Gaming is still happening
Did you think something changed here? It was like I kept saying — we’re still too early in the cycle no matter what Alex Becker says. In the end, he will be right, accumulating now is probably the move, but you can get tokens he loved and still loves near the levels they were before he even began to mention them.
And why wouldn’t you? They were exciting back then, you mean to tell me they’re not anymore?
Nothing has changed. Except for the price of course, which is far more attractive now than it was in January.
My prediction for Web3 Gaming was how 2024 is going to be the best time to accumulate, and then we see the real first wave of interest outside the sector when a lot of these games fully release in 2025.
With other sectors like DEFI 2.0, RWAs, AI, etc, I still think we’re still a cycle away here before we get our first batch of real long-term winners.
4 – Fugazi tokens are telling you they’re fugazi
If you’re wondering whether or not that mid-low cap token you love so much actually does have potential — go look and see how much it has fallen. If it’s more than average, chances are its larger investors knew what they were really holding, and dumped.
Conversely, if a token is not falling as much, there is an above-average chance IMO that investors also know what they have here, and instead of dumping they are holding or accumulating more.
Times like this are a gift in many ways. You can really see things a lot more clearly.
5 – All of the old narratives haven’t changed
Money getting worse, irreversible debt and deficits, digital scarcity, young people all moving towards digital everything, BTC chain getting built out, number of diamond hands getting more and more every year, none of this has changed, nor is it ever likely to.
Bear Case
Our one bear case is still in play, and that’s the TQQQ correlation. Go look. It dropped 12% in April, and BTC dropped 15%. When this correlation breaks long term, we will be in a very good spot. Until then…
Conclusion
By now, you shouldn’t need me to tell you all of this, but some of you may be newer here, or eat a lot of wheat and soy and therefore are more emotional than your average NNFX fan.
If you believe in this market, low prices are what you WANT right now, before the real up-cycle begins.
Once you start seeing things this way, you’ll grow bored of bull markets, and get excited for the drops.
That’s how you’ll know you’ve made it.
— VP